One could say that we’ve had a bit of everything in the last few years. How do you see the current economic situation?

After two years of depression caused by the pandemic, the long health crisis has ended, but by no means has this brought us back to the normality and prosperity that we were longing for. The world has definitely changed and 2022 has brought with it great instability. Inflation is a major concern in Western countries and central banks have rushed to increase the price of money in order to cool economies. However, the balance between these measures and causing a slowdown in growth, which remains tepid in many countries, is very complex. Achieving that delicate balance between intervention measures to alleviate escalating prices and letting the economy keep moving will be the key to coming out of this very complex situation we are experiencing, which is also influenced by external factors, such as the war in Ukraine, or Europe’s energy dependence, which is difficult to control.

In addition, all of this is taking place in a context of energy transition, which is necessary but not always well understood or executed, as this energy crisis is making us see, with certain countries in our immediate vicinity changing their energy strategies at a rapid pace.

Where does the industrial oil manufacturing sector stand in this context?

During the pandemic, we experienced a sharp drop in demand, which in turn led to a contraction in supply. And with the return to normality, the roles have been reversed: demand took off but there were major supply problems, especially for lubricant bases, maritime transport, road transport, and scheduled and unscheduled refinery shutdowns. This has been compounded by a series of events that have greatly affected additive manufacturing.

Even so, Aselube companies have performed magnificently, redoubling their efforts to guarantee the supply of finished products, and meeting their commitments with clients and, of course, quality. It hasn’t been easy and there have been obvious problems, but I believe that the sector has been up to the task and we’ve done what we needed to do - at least in terms of lubricants - not to transfer these blockages to industrial activity or mobility.

Today we can say that, albeit slowly, demand and supply are finally balancing out, and supply problems are improving. It has taken many months for this to happen, because we’re talking about global processes with long cycles. What has become clear is that the world is more connected than ever, and that there is total interdependence, in terms of production and logistics: a blockage in the Suez Canal, a storm in Texas, or energy restrictions in China can cause delays, shortages or stock-outs that directly affect commercial operations on the other side of the world.

Lubricant demand is closely linked to economic developments, because lubricant sales are determined by the strength or weakness of industry, transport and private consumption. Judging by the way lubricants are an economic ‘thermometer’, what is the outlook for the coming months and 2023? Is there a real threat of recession and, even worse, stagflation?

Although demand at the start of the year was somewhat lower than in 2021 - mainly due to the ‘base effect’ - of the beginning of 2021 being so dynamic - we expect to end the year slightly above last year. It’s important we wait and see how the final stretch of the year develops, and how inflation and news of a possible stagnation affect industry and consumer confidence and purchasing decisions. Indicators so far have been positive: all the forecasts speak of closing 2022 and 2023 with growth, albeit with very timid figures, in line with our forecasts for lubricants. It is true, therefore, that if the situation worsens even the slightest bit, we would find ourselves, at the very least, in a technical recession. And of course this combined with very high inflation is a complex scenario which we’ll be forced to face. We at Aselube will carry on as we have up until now: meeting our commitments with clients, because that’s the only way we will be able to row in favour of our economy.

How are lubricant companies handling the green transition and the so-called ‘decarbonisation’ of the economy?

There is no doubt that all the changes that have taken place recently seem to be pushing us to accelerate the transition towards a more sustainable economy that is more in harmony with the environment. The lubricant industry has been at the forefront of sustainability for many years, producing more durable industrial oils with a lower environmental impact and carbon footprint, not only in the manufacturing process itself, but also in their use. Remember that lubricants are a key element in vehicle emissions in the automotive industry. In industrial applications, in addition to working with materials that last longer and have better resistance to degradation, the right lubricant products improve energy efficiency and therefore reduce the associated carbon footprint.

Lubricants and technology go hand in hand. Manufacturing companies have been investing heavily in technology for years to improve their performance. That’s how, for example, with these new generation oils, engines consume less, machines last longer, emit less CO₂ or generate less ash. Lubricant manufacturers have therefore been directly involved in decarbonisation and environmental protection for years.

We also strongly support the formulation with regenerated base oils - although their quality needs to improve to broaden their usability - and the Circular Economy of lubricants. After all, we Aselube companies have been the driving force behind the SIGAUS system, a benchmark in Europe in the management of used oils. Their results, in terms of goals achieved, and the contribution of added value with regard to efficiency, availability of information or social awareness, are unquestionable.

Speaking of the Circular Economy, a new royal decree on commercial and industrial packaging is expected to be approved in the coming months, which will oblige manufacturers of industrial oils to take responsibility for this type of packaging, within a period of 12 months. The sector has prepared for this by creating the entity GENCI. Could you explain the process?

As with the creation of SIGAUS, I can say that Aselube’s action has been quick and efficient. We are in a privileged position today not only with regard to compliance with future regulations, but also in terms of complying with the regulations already in force, because this requirement is already mandatory in the case of products marketed in the Balearic Islands.

It remains clear that, after 15 years’ experience with used oil, SIGAUS was the ideal agent to channel compliance with these new responsibilities. Although it is a different waste, the channels generating it, such as workshops and industry, are still the same. Added to this is the organisation’s capacity for dialogue with all actors in the value chain (public bodies, manufacturers, managers, waste producers) and, something that is key, traceability and information management.

Through the new entity created by SIGAUS, GENCI, we are already complying with regulations in the Balearic Islands and we are fully prepared to provide the necessary coverage across Spain whenever a national management system for this packaging becomes mandatory. On this issue I can honestly say that I am proud of how the sector has once again responded to a regulatory and environmental challenge.